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African swine fever will wipe out hundreds of millions of pigs
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Global pig-meat index is headed for steepest jump in 15 years

Bringing home the bacon will cost more. Blame African swine fever.
Run on Pigs
Pork is heading for the steepest annual increase in 15 years
Source: Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
“It doesn’t matter where you are in the world at the moment, pork prices are up,” said Justin Sherrard, Rabobank’s Utrecht-based global animal-protein strategist, in a telephone interview. “China is the market to focus on. Firstly, because it’s big and, secondly, because this is really the first place that African swine fever started to hit.”
Read More: The Deadly Virus That’s Killing Off Millions of Pigs
Prices will remain high for at least the next three months in the lead up to the Lunar New Year on Jan. 25, a peak time for pork consumption in China, Vietnam and other countries that celebrate the festival. Retailers will have “no choice” but to pass on at least some of the extra cost to consumers, Sherrard said.
Bacon Around The World
A snapshot of what shoppers are paying for 500 grams (18oz) bacon
Source: Online retail data
By the end of 2020, China’s swine herd will slump to 275 million head, down almost 40% since the beginning of 2018, before the world’s largest animal disease outbreak began, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That will pull down global pork production by 10% in 2020.
Hog Apocalypse
China’s annual pig production has been savaged by African swine fever
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
2019 & 2020 are forecasts
“African swine fever has had a significant impact on the production of pork in China and increasingly in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries,” said Tim Foulds, Euromonitor International’s head of research for Australasia. “Government attempts to control the crisis, including the large-scale culling of animals, resulted in pork production dropping dramatically in 2019.”
Peak Pork
Prices in China have surged 120% since deadly pig outbreak reported
Source: China Ministry of Commerce
Reduced domestic supplies will boost China’s demand for foreign pork, resulting in record prices and imports. However, Chinese consumers will “feel the pinch,” with a 32% slump in per-capita pork consumption over two years, the USDA said in an Oct. 10 report.
African swine fever, which kills most pigs in a week but isn’t known to harm humans, has had a greater impact in China than in any country or previous outbreak, and the disease there is now considered endemic, or generally present, according to the USDA.
Boss Hog
China’s $118 billion market dominates global pork sales
Source: Euromonitor International
