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Bird flu suspected after more than 1,000 birds found dead in SA, more deaths in Tasmania
The first wave of bird flu is the worst: what Australia can learn from overseas
Published: August 20, 2026 1:09am EDT
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The first wave of bird flu is the worst: what Australia can learn from overseas
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Hundreds of dead birds are now being reported as the lethal H5N1 strain of bird flu begins to spread across Australia. Government reports show the virus is circulating in resident birds.
It was a long time coming. The current outbreak emerged in 2020. By late 2021, it was spreading widely, leaving a widespread trail of devastation among wildlife species across Europe and the Americas. Even as Antarctic birds and mammals began suffering over 2024 and 2025, Australia – and New Zealand – remained free of this viral strain. Until now.
It’s easy to picture bird flu as an unstoppable wave set to decimate Australian birds and mammals. But that’s not set in stone. Overseas evidence shows the first wave tends to be by far the worst. And deaths from the first wave can vary greatly, with many populations and individuals surviving.
That’s good news for some – but it won’t save vulnerable species who may lose a large proportion of their global population. For them, recovery is likely to take decades – if at all.
The first wave is devastating
In 1996, a new highly pathogenic strain of bird flu emerged in poultry in China. Periodic outbreaks forced mass poultry culls and sporadic die-offs in wild birds.
In 2020, a new variant – formally known as H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b – was detected. Soon, it was sweeping through Europe and North America.
It was immediately clear the virus had become more devastating.
Less dangerous strains of bird flu (termed low pathogenic avian influenza viruses) tend to replicate in a bird’s gastrointestinal tract, while earlier high pathogenic strains tended to replicate in the respiratory tract.
But this new strain could infect both. Not only that, it was able to infect the central nervous system, leading to neurological disease and death.
The strain has evolved many new variants since 2021. These can now infect over 500 wild bird species, of which over 50% had not had infections previously recorded.
Then came reports of fatal infections in mammals, from scavengers such as foxes to herbivores such as deer and marine mammals such as sea lions. Many had never had bird flu before. The virus was even able to infect livestock such as cattle. Human infections are thankfully rare, with no reports of the virus spreading between people so far.
Across western Europe and North America, deaths of breeding-age adult birds were as high as 25–76% in the worst-hit species. Many populations had near-complete breeding failures.
In 2023, it hit South America. Some bird species lost up to 50% of their global population, while marine mammals suffered their first mass deaths. In Argentina, 17,000 elephant seals died in a single colony.
What happened next?
While mass deaths of wildlife made global headlines, little media coverage has focused on what happened next.
Mass deaths don’t seem to strike the same populations year after year, even though the virus is still circulating.
Adult sandwich terns in western Europe died in droves in 2022. But in 2023, mortality rates in adults fell by 96%. That year’s chicks were hit hard, but those hatching in 2024 did far better.
Why? Older, more vulnerable birds all died off in the first wave, and surviving terns gained some immune resistance. Younger birds previously shut out from breeding took advantage of the situation, while chicks benefited from reduced competition for food.
Overall, sandwich tern numbers only fell modestly. Even so, the species is projected to take almost 20 years to recover to its pre-outbreak level.
Not all populations or individuals were affected equally – even in the first wave. Atlantic seabirds breeding in large, dense colonies were hit hard. Gannets, terns and skuas all saw mass deaths. But neighbouring petrels, puffins and shearwaters nesting in burrows had far fewer deaths.
This may give some protection to Australia’s burrowing little penguins. Authorities are also moving to vaccinate thousands of these penguins.
For many species, bird flu is made worse by other threats. In 2024, Adéle penguins in Antarctica had to battle both bird flu and deadly avian cholera, leading to many losses. Similarly, bird flu hit African penguins already in trouble from the collapse of sardine fisheries.
We can’t directly extrapolate from overseas experience. Many Australian birds and mammals are unique. Some, such as black swans, lack crucial immune defences against influenza.
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The death toll is not set
Official estimates suggest about 20% of bird and 10% of mammal populations in Australia are at high to extreme risk of population impacts from this strain.
But catastrophic destruction is not guaranteed. Whether a species is hit hard or barely touched will depend on three things: level of exposure to the virus, how well it can resist infection and how well it can cope with being infected.
Before this strain arrived, experts evaluated the risk for all Australian bird and mammal species, developed action plans for important sites and expanded surveillance and diagnostic systems to monitor outbreaks and viral evolution. These measures are globally recognised as the most important tools.
Australia is now following New Zealand in vaccinating captive and closely-managed populations.
Worldwide, no species has suffered 100% losses. That means some individuals likely survived the infection. Generally, animals can cope better with infection if they’re well fed, in a good habitat and aren’t exposed to pollution or stress.
The biggest lever we can pull is tackling these other pressures, from habitat loss and plastic pollution to invasive species.
We have a chance to try relieving these pressures on wildlife to give them more of a fighting chance – but the window is shrinking.
Author
Bethany J HoyeLecturer in Animal Ecology, University of Wollongong
Disclosure statement
Bethany J Hoye receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Partners
University of Wollongong provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64628/AA.f3fcyysnf
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Bird flu could spell disaster for wild bird populations in Victoria
Bird flu has arrived in Victoria – and it could spell disaster for wild bird populations
H5 bird flu (H5N1) is a strain of highly infectious influenza that can affect wild, farmed, and pet birds, and can be transmitted to mammals.
Large-scale outbreaks of H5 bird flu have killed millions of wild birds and tens of thousands of mammals around the world – pushing already vulnerable species closer to extinction. Until June this year, Australia and New Zealand had remained free of the virus.
Where have confirmed bird flu cases been found?
The most recent update from the Victorian Agriculture Department on August 20 says there are over 100 confirmed cases of bird flu in Victoria, including one in Clyde in Western Port Bay, just south-east of Melbourne. Positive cases have been detected from Portland to Phillip Island, to East Gippsland, and even inland near Mildura.
Within only a few weeks of the first detection in Victoria on July 30, numbers of cases have rapidly risen, with numbers of deaths expected to grow significantly. Many important populations of birds across key coastal regions, rivers, and wetlands are likely to be impacted.
What are the potential impacts on wild birds in Victoria?
The threat of H5 bird flu to native birdlife is alarming. We could see whole populations of native bird species like black swans, which are highly susceptible, impacted. According to experts, other species, including endangered marine mammals like elephant seals, are also at risk. This could become a genuine wildlife emergency, and it must be treated with emergency funding and immediate action to protect native bird species and their habitat.
All of the birds from Environment Victoria’s ‘Doomed Without a Drink‘ report released July 2023 are on the Federal government’s bird flu risk assessment list. Only one has low susceptibility (Inland Dotterel), and nearly half are at a high to very high susceptibility, and most species have a high to very high national risk score.
Western Port Bay is one of Victoria’s remaining strongholds and important breeding and refuge areas for a number of threatened and vulnerable marine and coastal species. Its wetlands and surrounding waters provide habitat for internationally significant migratory shorebirds, seabirds, waterbirds and marine mammals, including species identified in the Australian Government’s national H5 bird-flu risk assessment.
The state government recently announced they would be vaccinating critical Little Penguin populations on Phillip Island and St Kilda, but sadly, there have already been positive cases of the virus in penguins on Phillip Island. The species is highly susceptible to the H5N1 virus.
What can be done to tackle this crisis?
The best thing the Victorian state government can do now is strengthen the resilience of native species, fund frontline interventions, and stop any avoidable threats to native bird species
We have serious concerns about whether the Victorian Government is adequately prepared to respond, especially given the cuts of more than 300 Environment Department staff and rangers in recent years. This has reduced the capacity for frontline monitoring, management, and response at a time when emerging threats such as bird flu require resources on the ground.
Healthy habitats also support stronger bird populations. Restored wetlands, protected breeding sites and well-connected landscapes give birds the best possible chance to withstand disease outbreaks and recover when disaster strikes.
Exposing the Big Game 