I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win

Skip to main content

FiveThirtyEight

We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems

NOV. 1, 2020, AT9:27 PM

I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win

A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too.

ByNate Silver

Filed under2020 Election

It’s tempting to write this story in the form ofnarrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania—” You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think it’s important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.

[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]

So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons thatPresident Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not…