How Trump and Biden can win based on where the election stands now

insider@insider.com (Jake Lahut,Sonam Sheth,Sinéad Baker)  11 hrs ago

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Biden is projected winner as nation watches final tallyLate-arriving Pennsylvania ballots not expected to ‘make or break’ election…How Trump and Biden can win based on where the election stands nowJoe Biden wearing a suit and tie: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks one day after Americans voted in the presidential election, on November 04, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. Drew Angerer/Getty Images© Drew Angerer/Getty Images Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks one day after Americans voted in the presidential election, on November 04, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

  • As of 5 a.m. ET on Thursday, Democratic nominee Joe Biden had a more flexible path to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win than President Donald Trump.
  • However, the seats Biden could win to put him over the top — Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — are still counting their ballots.
  • Trump’s path is narrower, but he is still in it.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

In the early hours of Thursday morning, the 2020 US presidential race still did not have a clear winner, with races tightening as counts continue in crucial states.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains a lead, though both he and President Donald Trump are in limbo early and absentee votes are tallied.

As of 5 a.m. ET on Thursday, Biden had secured 253 electoral votes, while Trump had 214. You can follow Insider’s live election results coverage here.

Biden, the former vice president, has held on to all the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and also won Michigan and Wisconsin, two key battleground seats that Trump turned red in 2016.

Read more: How Kimberly Guilfoyle, the ‘human Venus flytrap,’ has groomed boyfriend Donald Trump Jr. into a political powerhouse and turned herself into a conservative star

Trump is now likely to take North Carolina and Alaska, but other key states — Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia — are less clear.

Which campaign will reach the required 270 electoral votes hinges on the results in those remaining states.

Here’s how Biden can get the extra 17 or more votes to reach 270:

  • He wins Pennsylvania (20 votes).
  • He wins Arizona and Nevada (11 + 6 votes).
  • He wins Arizona and North Carolina (11 + 15 votes).
  • He wins Georgia and Arizona (16 + 11 votes).
  • He wins Georgia and Nevada (16 + 6 votes).
  • He wins Georgia and North Carolina (16 + 15 votes).
  • He wins Nevada and North Carolina (6 + 15 votes).

(None of the above include Alaska, which is very likely to go to Trump.)

Here’s how Trump can get the extra 56 votes to reach 270:

  • He wins Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia (20 + 11 + 15 + 16 votes). 
  • He wins Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Alaska (20 + 11 +16 + 6 + 3 votes). 

There is also a scenario which gives Trump 269 votes — enough for a tie.

  • He wins Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Alaska (20 + 11 + 15 + 6 +3 votes). 

The Associated Press and Fox news both called Arizona for Biden, but as of early Thursday the race was still too close to call based on the projection by Decision Desk HQ, which is informing Insider’s election coverage.

As of early on Thursday morning, Biden led Trump 50.49% to 48.14% in the state.

In Georgia, Trump had a narrow lead of less than half a point, or roughly 23,000 votes, as of early on Thursday.

Decision Desk HQ called Wisconsin for Biden on Wednesday afternoon, when he was ahead by around 20,000 votes. The Trump campaign signaled on Wednesday that it would call for a recount in Wisconsin, though past recounts in the state have only affected a few hundred votes.

Trump’s campaign also filed a lawsuit in Michigan to stop counting there, claiming it had been denied  “meaningful access” to watch the opening of ballots and the tally.

If the race came down Pennsylvania, that would likely be the most prolonged result in terms of vote counting.

The president signaled early Wednesday that Pennsylvania could be the center of a legal battle over which ballots ultimately get counted. However, as election experts have noted, it can be very difficult to get ballots discounted.

Read more: Democrats spend election night eating edibles and trying to avoid the fetal position. They didn’t get an early Biden win, let alone the blowout they wanted.

Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled that election officials could receive and count ballots until November 6 as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. Republicans requested a stay from the US Supreme Court that would have blocked the state court’s ruling.

But the US Supreme Court was deadlocked at 4-4, leaving the lower court’s ruling in place. Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito voted to grant Republicans’ request, while Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor dissented.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett declined to participate in the case “because of the need for a prompt resolution of it and because she has not had time to fully review the parties’ filings,” the court said in a statement. However, Barrett has not recused herself, meaning she could still be the decisive fifth opinion.Read the original article on Business Insider

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