Dan SabbaghDefence and security editor

Six months to the day since the start of the Russian invasion, here is what to expect for the next six months

Wed 24 Aug 2022 09.03 EDT

1. The war will probably run on for a year at least but is essentially deadlocked and its intensity is lessening

Six months of war may have gone by, but neitherUkrainenor Russia are ready to stop fighting, despite the losses they have sustained. Ukraine wants its occupied territories back, and Russia wants to keep inflicting pain not just on its opponent but, by proxy, the west also. The Kremlin believes winter will play to its advantage.

There have been no negotiations between the two sides since evidence emerged of the massacres at Bucha, Irpin and elsewhere…