• Andrew Freedman, author ofAxios Generate

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Axios on emailhttps://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0vjfZ/Data: NOAA; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/19/el-nino-watch-global-warming

A double whammy of natural climate cycles and human-caused climate change will likely make next year Earth’s warmest on record, climate experts tell Axios.

The big picture:Forecasters now expect that a moderate El Niño, the climate pattern characterized bywarmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures, will develop this summer, bringing sweeping shifts to weather patterns worldwide.

• El Niño teams up with human-caused climate change and pushes global average surface temperatures higher.
• Even a relatively weak event could lead to new records for the warmest year in 2023 and 2024.

What’s happening:Three straight years of La Niña, which features cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, have given way to a rapid transition to an El Niño state.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration…