Understanding the risk to native species

Posted on by

Last updated: 04 August 2026

On this page

Most Australian animals are found nowhere else in the world. This means the potential impacts of H5 bird flu are hard to predict.

All birds and mammals are at some risk of H5 bird flu. We have developed a H5 bird flu risk analysis to better understand the potential impacts of the virus on our native birds and mammals. The analysis is also used to identify high risk sites where most at-risk species occur in higher numbers. It has been co-developed with leading bird and mammal experts from BirdLife Australia and Charles Darwin University.

This information is guiding planning and action underway across Australia to prepare for the potential spread of H5 bird flu.

We are leading the work in partnership with:

  • state and territory governments
  • key conservation organisations.

By identifying species which may be most impacted by an outbreak, we can:

  • focus efforts to safeguard our most at-risk species as effectively as possible
  • support their recovery.

The analysis complements other sources of information informing our biodiversity preparedness and resilience work. This includes:

  • AviFluMap(external link) developed by Deakin University with BirdLife Australia and Wildlife Health Australia
  • scientific literature
  • additional susceptibility and risk assessments undertaken by a number of jurisdictions
  • local and cultural expertise and values.

The analysis represents our current understanding of Australia’s native species. It is based on the best available information and insights from overseas experience. We recognise that predicting potential impacts will almost always have uncertainties. It is especially challenging to apply findings from species exposed to H5 bird flu overseas to the very different species found in Australia.

The analysis is a living document. It will be updated as we learn more about H5 bird flu. Visit the website for updates on the analysis.

Calculating risk

The analysis estimates relative risk of species level impacts from H5 bird flu.

Risk is defined as the predicted national population decline of a species in the event of an outbreak considering:

  • susceptibility
  • vulnerability.

Susceptibility includes factors that influence the likelihood of infection with H5 bird flu and local-level impacts to a species. For example:

  • habitat
  • species ecology
  • behaviour
  • impacts experienced by similar species overseas.

Vulnerability of a species refers to the factors which may predispose a species to a higher risk of national-scale impacts. This is assessed by:

  • national conservation status (listing under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999)
  • if the species has a restricted range and/or a small national population size.

Continued: Understanding the risk to native species – DCCEEW

Leave a comment