Category Archives: Pandemic

China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous [Bird] Flu Virus [H7N9]

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Despite an international agreement, U.S. health authorities still have not received H7N9 avian flu specimens from their Chinese counterparts.

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Health workers attending to an H7N9 avian flu patient in Wuhan, China, in 2017. CreditCreditAgence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Emily Baumgaertner

For over a year, the Chinese government has withheld lab samples of a rapidly evolving influenza virus from the United States — specimens needed to develop vaccines and treatments, according to federal health officials.

Despite persistent requests from government officials and research institutions, China has not provided samples of the dangerous virus, a type of bird flu called H7N9. In the past, such exchanges have been mostly routine under rules established by the World Health Organization.

Now, as the United States and China spar over trade, some scientists worry that the vital exchange of medical supplies and information could slow, hampering preparedness for the next biological threat.

The scenario is “unlike shortages in aluminum and soybeans,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard Medical School.

“Jeopardizing U.S. access to foreign pathogens and therapies to counter them undermines our nation’s ability to protect against infections which can spread globally within days.”

Experts concur that the world’s next global pandemic will likely come from a repeat offender: the flu. The H7N9 virus is one candidate.

Since taking root in China in 2013, the virus has spread through poultry farms, evolving into a highly pathogenic strain that can infect humans. It has killed 40 percent of its victims.

If this strain were to become highly contagious among humans, seasonal flu vaccines would provide little to no protection. Americans have virtually no immunity.

“Pandemic influenza spreads faster than anything else,” said Rick A. Bright, the director of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services that oversees vaccine development. “There’s nothing to hold it back or slow it down. Every minute counts.”

Under an agreement established by the World Health Organization, participating countries must transfer influenza samples with pandemic potential to designated research centers “in a timely manner.”

That process — involving paperwork, approval through several agencies and a licensed carrier — normally takes several months, according to Dr. Larry Kerr, the director of pandemics and emerging threats at the Department of Health and Human Services.

But more than one year after a devastating wave of H7N9 infections in Asia — 766 cases were reported, almost all in China — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is still waiting for several viral samples, the National Security Council and the W.H.O. confirmed.

Scientists at the Department of Agriculture have had such difficulty obtaining flu samples from China that they have stopped requesting them altogether, according to a government official who spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

At least four research institutions have relied upon a small group of H7N9 samples from cases in Taiwan and Hong Kong. (All four asked not to be identified for fear of further straining ties.)

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention also did not reply to inquiries regarding the transfer.

When the H7N9 virus first appeared in China, researchers say the Chinese government at first provided timely information. But communication has gradually worsened.

Yet a sudden spike in infections during the 2016-2017 outbreak wave demands intense research, said scientists aiming to understand the virus’ evolution.

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Health workers culling chickens in Hong Kong in 2014 following an outbreak of avian flu.CreditPhilippe Lopez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Recent trade tensions could worsen the problem.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative in April released a proposed list of products to be targeted for tariffs — including pharmaceutical products such as vaccines, medicines and medical devices.

So far, none of those medical products have landed on the final tariff lists. But lower-level trade negotiations with China concluded on Thursday with few signs of progress, increasing the likelihood of additional tariffs.

The United States relies on China not only for H7N9 influenza samples but for medical supplies, such as plastic drip mechanisms for intravenous saline, as well as ingredients for certain oncology and anesthesia drugs. Some of these are delivered through a just-in-time production model; there are no stockpiles, which could prove dangerous if the supply was disrupted, health officials said.

Scientists believe top commerce officials in both governments view the viral samples much like any other laboratory product, and may be unfamiliar with their vital role in global security.

“Countries don’t own their viral samples any more than they own the birds in their skies,” said Andrew C. Weber, who oversaw biological defense programs at the Pentagon during the Obama administration.

“Given that this flu virus is a potential threat to humanity, not sharing it immediately with the global network of W.H.O. laboratories like C.D.C. is scandalous. Many could die needlessly if China denies international access to samples.”

For over a decade, epidemiological data and samples have been used as trade war pawns.

China hid the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, for four months and then kept the findings of its research private. Some provinces withheld information about cases even from the central government in Beijing.

In 2005, Chinese authorities insisted an H5N1 influenza outbreak was contained, contradicting University of Hong Kong scientists who offered evidence that it was expanding. Those authorities hesitated to share viral samples from infected wild birds with the international community, concealing the scope to avoid a hit to their vast poultry industry.

Indonesia followed suit, refusing in 2007 to share specimens of H5N1 with the United States and United Kingdom, arguing that the countries would use the samples to develop a vaccine that Indonesians could not afford.

Those episodes led to the 2011 development of the W.H.O.’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, which aims to promote sample exchanges as well as developing countries’ access to vaccines.

But for countries like China, bearing the burden of a novel virus is paradoxical. Outbreaks are expensive — the wave of H7N9 infections in 2013 alone cost China more than $6 billion, according to the United Nations — but they can provide a head-start in developing valuable treatments.

“In a sense, China has made lemonade from lemons — converting the problem of global infectious disease threats into lifesaving and valuable commodities,” Dr. Callahan said.

And now, as the H7N9 virus evolves, United States authorities worry that the Chinese have obfuscated the scale and features of this outbreak.

The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to scientists, and claims to have all but eradicated H7N9 through a single poultry vaccination campaign.

“Influenza is going to do what it does best, which is mutate,” Dr. Kerr said.

EARLIER REPORTING ON THE TRADE FLIGHT AND BIRD FLU
U.S. and China to Rekindle Trade Talks as More Tariffs Loom

Bird Flu Is Spreading in Asia, Experts (Quietly) Warn

The number of new flu viruses is increasing, and could lead to a pandemic

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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2017-04-flu-viruses-pandemic.html

April 7, 2017 by C Raina Macintyre, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, And Chau Bui, The Conversation
Flu virus
Flu virus

Influenza has affected humans for over 6,000 years, causing pandemics at regular intervals. During the 1918 Spanish flu, it was thought to be a bacteria, until an American physician Richard Shope identified the virus in 1931.

So how is it this pathogen has managed to stay around for so long, and why haven’t we beaten it yet? The answer is that influenza is a that changes rapidly and regularly.

New flu vaccines are required every year due to these changes and mutations of the virus. While all flu viruses which infect humans are similar, a (which is easily transmitted between humans) is significant because humans have no immunity to it, and so are vulnerable to severe infection and death. Seasonal viruses which we see year after year were once , but humans have now been exposed to these viruses and have some background immunity to them.

We have found that the last decade has seen an acceleration in the number of infecting humans.

Why are there so many flu strains today?

Around 100 years ago the world experienced the Spanish flu pandemic, and it took another 39 years for a novel influenza virus to emerge. It took a decade after that for the next one. Since 2011, however, we have seen seven novel and variant strains emerge. This is a very large increase compared to the past.

The reasons for this increase are unknown, but there could be many. One reason could be better diagnostics and testing; another could be changes in poultry farming and animal management practices, since influenza is a virus that affects humans, birds and many animal species; as well as changes in climate, urbanisation and other ecological influences.

But none of these factors have changed at the same rate as the emergence of new viruses has escalated. This warrants new research to unpack the relative contributions of all the different possible factors.

Another change is advances in genetic engineering tools, which make it possible to edit the genome of any living organism, including viruses. The possibility of a lab accident or deliberate release of engineered flu viruses is real. Experiments to engineer influenza viruses have been published since 2011, and remain controversial for the possible risk, compared to the relative possible benefit.

With so many more novel influenza viruses emerging and circulating, the probability of genetic mutation and emergence of a new pandemic strain is higher today than any time in the past. It’s a matter of when, not if.

What can we do to prevent a pandemic?

There’s actually already a lot being done to plan for and prevent another flu pandemic. This is both in terms of pharmaceutical drugs and vaccines, and non-pharmaceutical interventions like personal protective equipment, quarantine, border control and banning of mass gatherings in the event of an outbreak.

National pandemic plans outline interventions and the best sequence of different interventions, as well as prioritisation of these interventions. Most countries also conduct pandemic hypotheticals to test their systems and responses. But the best laid plans do not account for every possibility, and we usually encounter the unexpected.

For example, during the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the pandemic phases outlined in the Australian pandemic plan were revised to better fit the emerging situation. This highlights the need to be able to rapidly respond to changing circumstances and change strategies when required.

What about vaccines?

Vaccination is the most talked about strategy but producing a matched vaccine takes three to six months at a minimum. The pandemic would be expected to peak within about two months, so vaccines can’t be relied on until after the peak of the pandemic. Instead, we need to use antiviral medications, social distancing measures, personal protective equipment such as masks and gloves, isolation and quarantine to contain the pandemic.

Influenza vaccines are specific to strains of flu, and can be used for humans, birds or animals. However, they will only work against the specific strains the vaccine was designed for. There are no vaccines for many of the novel strains emerging all over the world.

It’s almost impossible to anticipate which specific virus will cause the next pandemic. At best we can prepare pre-pandemic vaccines which require an educated guess as to which virus may mutate into a pandemic strain, and make a vaccine against that.

A strain-specific pandemic planning strategy like this is not the best approach, as illustrated by the swine flu pandemic in 2009. From 2005 until 2009, the avian flu virus H5N1 ( are defined and named by proteins on their surface, haemagglutinin – H, and neuraminidase – N) was the major cause of bird flu, so the world focused heavily on preparing for a H5N1 pandemic and developing a H5 pre-pandemic .

However, the virus that caused the 2009 pandemic was H1N1, a completely different virus, so the pre- vaccines were no use.

A better approach is to try to prevent the emergence of new virus in birds and animals, and mitigate the risks once they emerge. This involves control strategies in both animal and human health sectors, surveillance and prevention efforts.

A targeted approach in global hotspots such as China, the source of the H7N9 influenza virus, and Egypt, which is experiencing a surge in H5N1 influenza, will also help.

Hotspots are generally where humans and livestock mix in close proximity, such as backyard poultry farms and live bird markets. Asia has historically been such a site. However, we sometimes see unusual outbreaks such as the bird flu outbreak in turkey farms in the USA in 2015.

Culling of birds is a commonly used method to control the risk once infection is detected. As are measures such as regulation of live bird markets and of the poultry and livestock industries. Excellent surveillance, rapid intelligence and picking up potential pandemics as they arise can make all the difference. We probably had a near miss pandemic strain arising in Indonesia in 2006, but the remote location and early detection mitigated the risk.

Explore further: Scientists ‘must not become complacent’ when assessing pandemic threat from flu viruses

Flu pandemic likelihood increasing as new strains emerge, UNSW researchers warn

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APRIL 6 2017
by Harriet Alexander

A gathering number of new influenza strains in the past five years has escalated the likelihood of a major influenza pandemic on the scale of the deadly Spanish flu, researchers say.

UNSW researchers in the school of public health are calling for better collaboration between countries and first responder agencies in the event of a flu pandemic.

Their study published in the Archives of Public Health identified 19 separate influenza strains that have emerged in humans during the past century, including seven in the past five years alone.

Raina MacIntyre, director of the UNSW’s Integrated Systems for Epidemic Response, said the unprecedented rise in new strains appeared to be a true increase and not just a matter of more cases being detected.

“The question is, why?” Professor MacIntyre said.

“Some of the reasons involve things like climate change and its impact on pathogens, changes like urbanisation, but none of these things have increased at the rate the virus is increasing so there’s something else going on.”

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The Spanish flu, which killed 50 million people in 1918-19, was followed by a 40-year hiatus during which no new flu strains emerged, and then a 10-year gap from the one after that to the next.

But the emergence of strains has gathered pace in the past 15 years.

Professor MacIntyre said a repeat of the Spanish flu was “very possible” and countries and sectors such as health, agriculture, defence and emergency services needed to collaborate better on how to respond in such an event.

“We are somewhat prepared, but when pandemics occur there are almost always unanticipated scenarios,” she said.

“When health systems become stressed and unable to cope with the sick, that is when we are truly tested.”

Influenza strains that have developed in recent years have been transmissible only from birds to humans and not between people, and fatalities have been rare.

But study co-author Chau Bui said the large number of viruses circulating among birds in recent years increased the likelihood that one would mutate and become transmissible between humans.

The risks could be mitigated by banning the sale of live birds in wet markets in Asia, thereby reducing the spread of viruses between birds, and controlling the purchase of live or freshly slaughtered poultry in wet markets to stop the public coming into contact with the bodily fluids of infected poultry, she said.

Special Interest Group for Influenza chair Alan Hampson, who was not part of the study, said there needed to be more research into the genetics of influenza viruses because if they were able to bind to human receptors, or survive in the air, then person-to-person transmission would become more likely.

“These viruses are reinventing themselves all the time,” Dr Hampson said.

“Most people think it’s highly probable that we will have influenza pandemics in the future and it may come from a source that’s being looked at under the World Health Organisation surveillance program or it may be like the one in 2009 that came out of left field and took us all by surprise.”

Meanwhile, a study by the US Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has found that flu vaccinations significantly reduce a child’s chances of dying from influenza.

Using data from 2010 to 2014, the researchers found only one in four children who died had been vaccinated.

How the Trump budget undercuts security risks posed by pandemics

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http://theconversation.com/how-the-trump-budget-undercuts-security-risks-posed-by-pandemics-75281

April 4, 2017 9.09pm EDT
by Maureen Miller

Women in rural Malawi, outside an AIDS hospital. AIDS was the first of the ‘new’ pandemic threats, after bird flu. Author provided. , Author provided

President Trump proposed a US$54 billion military budget increase to solidify the security of our nation. However, the government also recognizes pandemic threats as an issue of national security – one that knows no borders.

In the last four years, we have faced the Ebola epidemic – contained after significant loss of life – and Zika, which is still not contained. Collectively, we will feel these effects for a generation, while children born with Zika-related defects and their families will feel the effects every day of their lives.

The U.S. is a leading member of the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA), a growing international partnership created to respond to infectious disease threats. Yet the Trump budget slashes funding for the very agencies mandated to prevent pandemics. Take, for example, the 37 percent cut to the $50 billion State Department and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) budget, more than one-third of which targets global health security. As a global health researcher, I think this reveals a grave lack of understanding of the nuances and complexity of this national security issue.

The way the military protects America’s welfare is straightforward. The way that other U.S. agencies prevent pandemics is less understood. That it’s complicated shouldn’t stop our commitment to it.

Threats are closer than we realize

There are imminent threats that aren’t in the realm of hypothetical. Here’s an example: In January of this year, the government issued a travel warning in response to an active outbreak of H7N9 bird flu in China.

This strain of avian flu is worrisome because a few small mutations would allow it to spread from person to person. This could be the next pandemic to sweep the globe.

Historically speaking, we are overdue for a bird flu disaster. They have been documented over the past two centuries and appear every 40 years on average; the last one was in 1969.

Officials in southwest France ordered the slaughter of more than 600,000 ducks in February 2017 after an outbreak of bird flu. Bob Edme/AP

While preventing pandemics is expensive, it’s infinitely cheaper than the costs of actual pandemics. A report by the World Bank found a bird flu pandemic comparable to those from the last century could trigger a major global recession, with a fall in global GDP between 0.7 percent and 4.8 percent. While that might not sound like much, it represents $833 billion to $5.7 trillion.

Billions have already been spent on pandemics this century. As an epidemiologist who worked for one U.S. pandemic prevention initiative sponsored by USAID, I don’t question the amounts being spent. What I do question is the return on investment using current unproven strategies that do nothing to address the urgency of the situation right now.

National security, science and public health

Since the 1970s, when USAID recognized that improved population health was integral to development goals, the number of infectious disease outbreaks has tripled. In response, USAID created the Emerging Pandemic Threats program, which focuses on discovering new animal viruses that may pose threats to human health.

However, it’s a big jump to identifying an animal virus with pathogenic potential to one that actually “spills over” and infects human populations. Instead of being an applied public health program with immediate potential to prevent pandemics, virus discovery is traditional scientific research. This research also does not address other pathogens that already pose pandemic threat, such as Zika, which is mosquito-borne, or superbugs (i.e., multidrug resistant bacteria). It turns out that the real problem to preventing pandemics is people.

Limited knowledge of human practices that increase risk of infection and of the diseases that pose the greatest risk represent the fundamental challenges to prevention. In 2015, the World Health Organization developed a list of emerging diseases likely to cause severe outbreaks in the near future: Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease and Marburg, Lassa fever, MERS and SARS coronavirus diseases, Nipah and Rift Valley fever. Three “serious” backup diseases didn’t make the final cut: chikungunya, severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome and Zika (avian flu is treated separately). As history has shown us with Zika, we have a pretty good sense of what we’re up against in terms of disease.

Is there a better way to prevent pandemics?

Tools exist to determine which high-risk diseases are already circulating in human populations. Ebola provides a useful example. Decades before an outbreak was reported, a study found that Liberians had been exposed to Ebola – and survived.

Although there are few studies like this, Liberia is not a unique example. Scientists in Gabon documented Ebola exposure years prior to its first reported outbreak. Disease exposure may predict countries at highest risk for future outbreaks, but provides no information about how people are infected.

That has changed. New tools exist which measure both the diseases that are circulating and the behaviors that put people at risk of catching them. In fact, this approach, which integrates biological and behavioral surveillance, is already familiar to other successful USAID programs.

The closer we come to identifying where an outbreak will occur and which disease will be the likely culprit, the faster we can prioritize areas of highest risk. Targeted prevention strategies include developing diagnostics and vaccines in enough quantity to inoculate the population at immediate risk.

Since outbreaks often happen in remote areas with limited health infrastructure, the ability to vaccinate and detect disease will involve health systems strengthening – again beginning with regions at highest risk of known outbreak potential.

On March 3, the government stated increased concern regarding upgraded H7N9 bird flu. Even if this is not the next pandemic, there is always another threat waiting in the wings. We have the tools to provide a formidable, cost-effective first pass at pandemic prevention. It’s time to get the most bang for the buck we still have left – and to protect our national security on all fronts.

Just Keep ’em Stupid: No More ‘Bird Flu’

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Gag Rule Against saying “Bird Flu” or “Climate Change”

11 May 2015

 http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/35021/whats-in-a-name-no-more-bird-flu/

GLOBAL – The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued new guidelines for naming new human infectious diseases, which include the use of names such as ‘bird flu’ and ‘swine flu’, which have unintended negative impacts by stigmatising certain communities or economic sectors.

The WHO has called on scientists, national authorities and the media to follow best practices in naming new human infectious diseases to minimize unnecessary negative effects on nations, economies and people.

Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security at the WHO said: “In recent years, several new human infectious diseases have emerged. The use of names such as ‘swine flu’ and ‘Middle East Respiratory Syndrome’ has had unintended negative impacts by stigmatizing certain communities or economic sectors.

“This may seem like a trivial issue to some, but disease names really do matter to the people who are directly affected. We’ve seen certain disease names provoke a backlash against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have serious consequences for peoples’ lives and livelihoods.”

Diseases are often given common names by people outside of the scientific community. Once disease names are established in common usage through the Internet and social media, they are difficult to change, even if an inappropriate name is being used. Therefore, it is important that whoever first reports on a newly identified human disease uses an appropriate name that is scientifically sound and socially acceptable.

The best practices apply to new infections, syndromes, and diseases that have never been recognised or reported before in humans, that have potential public health impact, and for which there is no disease name in common usage. They do not apply to disease names that are already established.

The best practices state that a disease name should consist of generic descriptive terms, based on the symptoms that the disease causes (e.g. respiratory disease, neurologic syndrome, watery diarrhoea) and more specific descriptive terms when robust information is available on how the disease manifests, who it affects, its severity or seasonality (e.g. progressive, juvenile, severe, winter). If the pathogen that causes the disease is known, it should be part of the disease name (e.g. coronavirus, influenza virus, salmonella).

Terms that should be avoided in disease names include geographic locations (e.g. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, Spanish Flu, Rift Valley fever), people’s names (e.g. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, Chagas disease), species of animal or food (e.g. swine flu, bird flu, monkey pox), cultural, population, industry or occupational references (e.g. legionnaires), and terms that incite undue fear (e.g. unknown, fatal, epidemic).

WHO developed the best practices for naming new human infectious diseases in close collaboration with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and in consultation with experts leading the International Classification of Diseases (ICD).

The new best practices do not replace the existing ICD system, but rather provide an interim solution prior to the assignment of a final ICD disease name. As these best practices only apply to disease names for common usage, they also do not affect the work of existing international authoritative bodies responsible for scientific taxonomy and nomenclature of microorganisms.

National Guard called up to deliver water in Minnesota bird flu fight

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/26/us-health-birdflu-usa-minnesota-idUSKBN0NH0U920150426

CHICAGO | By P.J. Huffstutter
(Reuters) – The Minnesota State Emergency Operations Center has called on the National Guard to deliver water for use in the effort to contain the rapidly spreading avian flu virus, the center said on Sunday.Starting Monday, 30 National Guard soldiers and 15 military water trucks from the Willmar, Minnesota-based 682nd Engineer Battalion and the Brooklyn Park-based A Company, 134th Brigade Support Battalion will be used, the center said in a statement.

Large volumes of water are needed for the foam-based systems being used to cull flocks on infected turkey farms in a bid to contain the spread of the H5N2 virus, the statement said.

The guard members will work through Wednesday as additional water transport resources are identified.

The National Guard became available to be activated for such efforts last week, after Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton declared a state of emergency over the spread of the

Rescued Chicken--Pigs' Pease Sanctuary

Rescued Chicken–Pigs’ Pease Sanctuary

strain of avian flu, which has lead to the extermination of more than 7.3 million birds in the United States so far.

Minnesota’s action followed a similar move by neighboring Wisconsin a few days earlier.

The highly pathogenic H5N2 strain has been identified on 49 Minnesota farms in 17 counties and affected more than 2.6 million birds in the state, according to Minnesota state officials.

(Reporting by P.J. Huffstutter; Editing by Mohammad Zargham and Leslie Adler)

Ebola a Symptom of Ecological and Social Collapse

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The global environment is collapsing and dying under the weight of inequitable over-population and ecosystem loss.

“We learn the meaning of enough and how to share or it is the end of being.” ― Dr. Glen Barry

The surging Ebola epidemic is the result of broad-based ecological and social collapse including rainforest loss, over-population, poverty and war. This preventable environmental and human tragedy demonstrates the extent to which the world has gone dramatically wrong as ecosystem collapse, inequity, grotesque injustice, religious extremism, nationalistic militarism, and resurgent authoritarianism threaten our species and planet’s very being.

Any humane person is appalled by the escalating Ebola crisis, and let’s be clear expressing these concerns regarding causation is NOT an attempt to hijack a tragedy. Things happen for a reason, and Ebola was preventable, and future catastrophes of potentially greater magnitude can be foreseen and avoided by the truth.

The single greatest truth underlying the Ebola tragedy is that humanity is systematically dismantling the ecosystems that make Earth habitable. In particular, the potential for Ebola outbreaks and threats from other emergent diseases is made worse by cutting down forests [1]. Exponentially growing human populations and consumption – be it subsistence agriculture or mining for luxury consumer items – are pushing deeper into African old-growth forests where Ebola circulated before spillover into humans.

Poverty stricken communities in West Africa are increasingly desperate, and are eating infected “bushmeat” such as bats and gorilla, bringing them into contact with infected wildlife blood. Increasingly fragmented forests, further diminished by climate change, are forcing bats to find other places to live that are often amongst human communities.

Some 90% of West Africa’s original forests have already been lost. Over half of Liberia’s old-growth forests have recently been sold for industrial logging by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s post-war government. Only 4% of Sierra Leone’s forest cover remains and they are expected to totally disappear soon under the pressure of logging, agriculture, and mining.

My recently published peer-reviewed scientific research [2] on ecosystem loss and biosphere collapse indicates more natural ecosystems have been lost than the global environment can handle without collapsing. Recently published science reports that 50% of Earth’s wildlife has died (in fact been murdered) in the last 40 years [3].

Loss of natural life-giving habitats has consequences. We are each witnesses to and participants in global ecosystem collapse.

There are other major social ills which potentially foster global pandemics. Rising inequity, abject poverty, and lack of justice threaten Earth’s and humanity’s very being. These ills and global ecosystem collapse are causing increased nationalistic war, migration and rise of authoritarian corporatism. West Africa has been ravaged by war and poverty for decades, which shows little signs of abating, particularly since natural habitats for community based sustainable development are nearly gone.

War breeds disease. It is no coincidence that the 1918 flu pandemic – the last great global disease outbreak that killed an estimated 50-100 million – occurred just as the ravages of World War I were ending. Conditions after ecosystems are stripped by over-population and poverty are not that different – each providing ravaged landscapes that are prime habitat for disease organisms.

West Africa’s ecological collapse has brought people into contact with blood from infected animals causing the Ebola epidemic. Once human infection occurs, ecologically denuded, conflict ridden, over-populated, and squalid impoverished communities are ripe for a pandemic. As the Ebola virus threatens to become endemic to the region, it potentially offers a permanent base from which infections can indefinitely continue to spread globally.

 

Since 911 America has slashed all other spending as it militarizes, viewing all sources of conflict as resolvable by waging perma-war. Africa needs doctors and the U.S. sends the military. Both terrorism and infectious disease are best prevented by long-term investments in equitably reducing poverty and meeting human needs – including universal health-care, living wage jobs, education, family planning, and establishment of greater global medical rapid response capabilities.

We are all in this together. Our over-populated, over-consuming, inequitable human dominated Earth continues to wildly careen toward biosphere collapse as sheer sum consumption overwhelms nature. West Africa’s 2010 population of 317 million people is still growing at 2.35%, and is expected to nearly double in 25 years, even as squalor, lack of basic needs, ecosystem loss, and pestilence increase. This can never, ever be ecologically or socially sustainable, and can only end in ruin.

Equity, education, condoms, and lower taxes and other incentives to stabilize and then reduce human population are a huge part of the solution for a just, equitable, and sustainable future. Otherwise Earth will limit human numbers with Ebola and worse. It may be happening already.

We are one human family and in a globalized world no nation is an island unto itself. By failing to invest in reducing poverty and in meeting basic human needs in Africa and globally (even as we temporarily enrich ourselves by gorging upon the destruction of their natural ecosystems), we in the over-developed world ensure that much of the world is fertile ground for disease and war. There is no way to keep Ebola and other social and ecological scourges out of Europe and America if they overwhelm the rest of humanity.

Ebola is what happens when the rich ignore poverty, as well as environmental and social decline, falsely believing they are not their concern. There can be no security ever again for anybody as long as billions live in abject poverty on a couple dollars a day as a few hundred people control half of Earth’s wealth.

We learn the meaning of enough and how to share or it is the end of being.

Walmart parking lots and iPads don’t sustain or feed you. Healthy ecosystems and land do. The hairless ape with opposable thumbs – that once showed so much potential – has instead become an out of control, barbaric and ecocidal beast with barely more sentience of its environmental constraints than yeast on sugar.

Ebola is very, very serious but can be beat with public health investments, coming together and showing courage, and by dealing with underlying causes. In the short-term, it is absolutely vital that the world organizes a massive infusion of doctors and quarantined hospital beds into West Africa immediately, even as we work on the long-term solutions highlighted here.

Ultimately commitments to sustainable community development, universal health care and education, free family planning, global demilitarization, equity, and ecosystem protection and restoration are the only means to minimize the risk of emergent disease. Unless we come together now as one human family and change fast – by cutting emissions, protecting ecosystems, having fewer kids, ending war, investing in ending abject poverty, and embracing agro-ecology – we face biosphere collapse and the end of being.

A pathway exists to global ecological sustainability; yet it requires shared sacrifice and for us all to be strong, as we come together to vigorously resist all sources of ecocide. It is up to each and every one of us to commit our full being to sustaining ecology and living gently upon Earth… or our ONE SHARED BIOSPHERE collapses and being ends

I desperately hope that Ebola does not become a global pandemic killing hundreds of millions or even billions. But if it does, it is a natural response from an Earth under siege defending herself from our own ignorant yet willful actions. We have some urgent changes to make as a species, let’s get going today before it is too late.

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[1] We Are Making Ebola Outbreaks Worse by Cutting Down Forests: Mother Jones

[2] Barry, G. (2014), “Terrestrial ecosystem loss and biosphere collapse”, Management of Environmental Quality, Vol. 25 No. 5, pp. 542-563. Read online for personal use only: http://bit.ly/MEQ_Biosphere

[3] Living Planet Index: Zoological Society of London and WWF

 

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Save the Earth: Pray for a Pandemic

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I don’t mean to sound like some hateful misanthrope who wants to see humanity suffer for all its crimes against the environment. Rather, my misanthropy stems from a profound love of nature and a will to save non-humans from the cruelty and exploitation they’re routinely subjected to by the one species fully capable of causing a mass extinction. Indeed, the species Homo sapiens is currently in the process of putting an end to the most biologically diverse period the Earth has ever known—the Age of Mammals, a class which the human race must reluctantly finds itself included in.

Being nothing more than mere mammals themselves, humans are ultimately at the mercy of Mother Nature’s self-preserving tactics. And what better way to reign in an errant child than with a major global pandemic that takes down only humans? Let’s face it; humans are never going to reverse the ill-effects of climate change willingly. Oh, world leaders sometimes give it lip service, but they almost never mention the parallel scourge of overpopulation. It seems it’s hard to be “green” and keep 7,185,322,300 (as of this writing) people fed, clothed, sheltered and transported in the manner they’re currently accustomed to.

If people want to come out of this alive, they’re going to have to make some serious lifestyle changes. That means no more oil-dependent cars, trains, jet airplanes, no more Walmarts full of plastic trinkets built with coal power in Chinese factories, then sent overseas in gargantuan container ships. No offshore oil wells, no fracking, no tar sands pipelines; no freeways, no commuter traffic, no immensely-popular sporting events selling factory-farmed hot dogs by the billions. No people by the billions, for that matter. No more breeding until humans have figured out how to live alongside the rest of the Earth’s inhabitants without wiping them out or making slaves out of them.

No more! Starting right now! No false-starts or baby steps. Time to change or be changed!

It’s not just the politicians who lack the will to do what it will take to soften the blow of climate change. But while humans debate their role in causing relatively dependable weather systems to go topsy-turvy worldwide, Nature is poised to unleash a pandemic or two from her bag of tricks and take care of the human problem herself. I’m not talking about Ebola, that’s too slow and nasty.

When Nature gets serious, I’m hoping it’ll be quick and painless for all.  By the time humans know what hit ‘em, there’ll be no one left to test the experimental vaccine on the animals who’ll be too busy inheriting the Earth anyway.

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The African Ebola outbreak that keeps getting worse

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/04/07/the-african-pandemic-that-keeps-getting-worse/?tid=hp_mm

by Terrence McCoy  April 7, 2014

It began early this year in the forested villages of southeast Guinea. For months, the infected went undiagnosed. It wasn’t until March 23 that the news finally hit the World Health Organization. And by then, Ebola had already claimed 29 lives, the organization reported in a one-paragraph press release.

Since then, the organization has dispatched nine additional updates on a ballooning outbreak that’s received modest notice in the West, but has sent waves of panic across the African continent.

March 24: The outbreak is “rapidly evolving.” 59 dead. 86 confirmed cases.

March 27: The sickness spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. 66 dead. 103 confirmed cases.

March 30: “This is a rapidly changing situation,” WHO reported. 70 dead. 112 confirmed cases.

April 3: Ebola “has a case fatality rate of up to 90 percent,” the organization said. 83 dead. 127 confirmed cases.

On Sunday, after the number of dead topped 90 and Mali and Ghana recorded their first suspected cases of the disease, trouble began in remote villages.

A mob attacked an Ebola treatment center in Guinea, accusing it of infecting the town with disease, according to Reuters. In other villages, people stopped shaking hands.

“We fully understand that the outbreak of Ebola is alarming for the local population,” one doctor told the Independent. ”But it is essential in the fight against the disease that patients remain in the treatment center.”

What terrifies people so much about Ebola?

For starters, there’s no cure. Because it’s such a rare disease that primarily affects poor African villages, big drug companies perhaps haven’t seen enough economic opportunity to study the virus, Bloomberg reports.

Then there’s the fact that Ebola deaths are particularly gruesome. The disease comes from an infected animal – most likely the fruit bat, which infects monkeys, apes, pigs and, finally, humans. The disease is not airborne, but spreads through blood, secretions or other bodily fluids. Its early symptoms include fever and intense weakness, WHO says, then deepens with bouts of diarrhea, vomiting, and internal and external bleeding.

The migratory pattern of the outbreak, which aid workers call “unprecedented,” has baffled doctors. Outbreaks before this have stayed in remote pockets of the country, but this iteration shot hundreds of miles from southwest Guinea to the coastal capital of Conakry.

Exacerbating the situation is the scarcity of medical professionals in Guinea. According to the World Bank, there are only .1 physicians per 1,000 people — among the lowest ratios in the world, below even Afghanistan.

This has fed animosity among some in Guinea toward the government for its perceived inability to dispense medical services — or even enforce quarantines.

“You have a lot of people who have recovered from civil war and are living in war-ravaged areas with very poor infrastructures,” said Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations. “As soon as word goes out of quarantine, you have people start trying to escape and get away from the clutches of authorities.”

This has already happened, some in Guinea claim.

“How can we trust them now?” Conakry resident Dede Diallo told Reuters. She’s stopped working — and keeps her kids at home, where she says it’s safe. “We have to look after ourselves.”

SOURCES: Steve Monroe, deputy director of the CDC’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases; World Health Organization. Graphic: The Washington Post.

Q&A: Challenges of Containing Ebola’s Spread in West Africa

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“Transmission is human to human. There is no known cure.” … This could be it, people.

Health care workers struggle to stop infection from spreading.

Photo of health workers teaching people about the Ebola virus.

Health care workers teach people about the Ebola virus and how to prevent infection in Conakry, Guinea, on March 31, 2014.

Photograph by Youssouf Bah, AP

Susan Brink

for National Geographic

Published April 3, 2014

The deadly Ebola virus has broken out in the West African country of Guinea for the first time, alarming the public and catching health care workers off guard.

Since January the virus has spread from rural areas to the capital city of Conakry, so far infecting at least 122 patients and killing 83. Other cases, suspected or diagnosed, were also found recently in Sierra Leone and Liberia, making this a regional outbreak.

The disease, which first appeared in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1976, is marked by fever and severe internal bleeding. Transmission is human to human. There is no known cure. Patients normally receive supportive care consisting of balancing their fluids, maintaining oxygen and blood pressure levels, and treating other infections. The Ebola virus is fatal in up to 90 percent of patients.

We spoke to two experts about efforts to contain the outbreak. Tarik Jasarevic, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization, spoke to us from Conakry. And Roland Berenger, West Africa emergency manager for Plan International, an aid organization that works in developing countries around the world, spoke to us from Dakar just after returning from ten days in Guinea.

What are the basic strategies for controlling this outbreak in Guinea?

Jasarevic: We need to provide isolation wards, where infected people are treated and health workers are safeguarded. Where that is in place, health workers are using standardized protective equipment, like gloves, masks, eye protection, gowns, boots. It’s all single use, discarded after each use, except for the boots that can be disinfected.

Another strategy is contact tracing—looking for those who have been in contact with an infected person. We’ve deployed two mobile labs to provide testing and supportive care. And very important is information and communication. This is the first time Guinea is facing Ebola, so we need a big effort to educate the people.

At least 11 health care workers are among those infected. So did even local health care workers need a quick course in Ebola?

Berenger: Yes, the first people to be affected were health care workers themselves. People were thinking about cholera and lassa fever. They didn’t know what they were dealing with.

Jasarevic: Educating health care workers was the first thing to be done. Immediately, the Minister of Health organized meetings with all health authorities. We sent brochures to all health centers in the country.

How is information getting out to the general population in Guinea?

Jasarevic: Several things are happening. The president [of Guinea, Alpha Condé] gave a televised speech on Sunday on the outbreak. Journalists are getting really well briefed. People are going out to religious organizations to provide information. We’re in the process of designing posters that even illiterate people can understand, with images, say, of a hand with the international red circle and line through it. It indicates: Don’t touch. Don’t touch a person who is infected or dead.

Berenger: There are some gaps in providing the information to all the people. We need to reach all the people in the farthest villages. We need to do more with social media, radio, and using posters. We need to be more proactive. People are getting adequate information through TV and radio, but there is a part of the population who do not have access to those things, in very remote areas.

How are the people in Guinea dealing with this outbreak?

Jasarevic: Of course people are worried. But they are going about their business. Like anywhere, no one can afford to stay home all day.

Berenger: People understand the outbreak when you take time to explain things clearly. The people who have seen cases of Ebola are really scared. When you see people dying, bleeding to death, and there is nothing anyone can do, you get scared. In Conakry, they are going about their daily business, but I think many avoid going to crowded places. You see many people using hand sanitizers.

Some neighboring countries, including Liberia, have closed their borders, or are considering closing borders. Is this an effective strategy for control?

Berenger: The borders in many places are really porous. You can’t really prevent people from crossing the forest and going to other countries. It has already become a regional threat. I think it’s time for people to wake up and work on this as one planet.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/04/140403-ebola-virus-outbreak-deaths-guinea-health-geography/