Last updated: 04 August 2026

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• Calculating risk
• Steps for calculating risk
• Susceptibility factors
• Vulnerability factors
• Download national risk scores
• Understanding risk
• Examples
• Read more

Most Australian animals are found nowhere else in the world. This means the potential impacts of H5 bird flu are hard to predict.

All birds and mammals are at some risk of H5 bird flu. We have developed a H5 bird flu risk analysis to better understand the potential impacts of the virus on our native birds and mammals. The analysis is also used to identify high risk sites where most at-risk species occur in higher numbers. It has been co-developed with leading bird and mammal experts from BirdLife Australia and Charles Darwin University.

This information is guiding planning and action underway across Australia to prepare for the potential spread of H5 bird flu.

We are leading the work in partnership with:

• state and territory governments
• key conservation organisations.

By identifying species which may be most impacted by an outbreak, we can:

• focus efforts to safeguard our most at-risk species as effectively as possible
• support their recovery.

The analysis complements other sources of information informing our biodiversity preparedness and resilience work. This includes:

• AviFluMap(external link) developed by Deakin University with BirdLife Australia and Wildlife Health Australia
• scientific literature
• additional susceptibility and risk assessments undertaken by a number of jurisdictions
• local and cultural expertise and values.

The analysis represents our current understanding of Australia’s native species. It is based on the best available information and insights from overseas experience. We recognise that predicting potential impacts will almost always have uncertainties. It is especially challenging to apply findings from species exposed to H5 bird flu overseas to the very different species found in Australia.

The analysis is a living document. It will be updated as we learn more about H5 bird flu. Visit the website for updates on the analysis.

Calculating risk

The analysis estimates relative risk of species level impacts from H5 bird flu.

Risk is defined as the predicted national population decline of a species in the event of an outbreak considering:

• susceptibility
• vulnerability.

Susceptibility includes factors that influence the likelihood of infection with H5 bird flu and local-level impacts to a species. For example:

• habitat
• species ecology
• behaviour
• impacts experienced by similar species overseas.

Vulnerability of a species refers to the factors which may predispose a species to a higher risk of national-scale impacts. This is assessed by:

• national conservation status (listing under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999)
• if the species has a restricted range and/or a small national population size.

Continued: Understanding the risk to native species – DCCEEW

Assessment of more than 2,000 native species warns nearly one in five at high risk of deadly H5N1, including parrots, fur seals and quolls

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Graham Readfearn Environment and climate correspondentTue 4 Aug 2026 21.36 EDTShare

Penguins and dolphins among nearly 400 Australian species under threat from bird flu as ‘true extent of disaster’ revealed | Bird flu | The Guardian

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Almost 400 native Australian bird and mammal species have been assessed as being at a high risk – or worse – from the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, a federal government assessment has revealed.

Some of Australia’s most beloved animals – including species of penguins, fur seals, quolls, dolphins, more than 300 birds and the Tasmanian devil – are considered at least high risk from the virus, meaning they could suffer “severe reduction in population size or viability” or worse if it reached them.

Five species are considered at extreme risk, meaning “unlikely to survive where the virus occurs”.

These are all birds that breed in single islands or groups of islands, such as the endangered Christmas Island frigatebird and the critically endangered herald petrel, which only breeds on Raine Island in the far north of the Great Barrier Reef.

More than 80 endangered and critically endangered species are also considered to be facing at least a high risk from an infection, suggesting that the H5N1 strain of bird flu will push them further towards extinction.

The federal government released the results of the assessment of more than 2,000 native species, carried out with Charles Darwin University and BirdLife Australia, on Tuesday evening. Nearly one in five have been rated as facing extreme, very high or high risk.

Australia’s three resident seals – the Australian fur seal, the New Zealand fur seal and the Australian sea lion – are all considered at very high risk. The Tasmanian devil and the eastern quoll, both assessed as high risk, are the land mammals at greatest threat.

The extent of the analysis and the number of species considered at high risk underlines expert fears for the threat to local wildlife.

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Prof John Woinarski, a leading conservation scientist at Charles Darwin University who helped devise the analysis, said: “This has sketched out a more bleak picture than perhaps we considered previously.

“We are going to get major consequences for many species and our bird and mammal diversity is likely to suffer substantial impacts from this disease.”

Prof Hugh Possingham of the University of Queensland, a lead councillor at the Biodiversity Council, said the analysis was “a good first cut” but it should have been released two years ago.

“A year ago we needed a priority action list and we should have been taking action then because everyone knew that it was coming,” he said.

Kate Millar, the chief executive of BirdLife Australia, said while the list of species at high risk or worse was “long” and “incredibly confronting” it also meant Australia could “prioritise and take action protecting the species most at risk”.

Jack Gough, the chief executive of the Invasive Species Council, said the “list of doom” revealed “the true extent of the disaster facing Australian wildlife”.

He said it demanded a “serious response” from the government “but instead we have had cuts to on-ground environment programs nationally”.

“Almost one in five Australian mammals and birds has been rated by the government as at risk of severe population reductions or even extinction,” he said. “This includes quolls, parrots, seals and pelicans.”

The council is among several conservation groups calling for the government to fund a $200m package to scale up on-ground efforts to protect wildlife, including feral animal controls.

The government has said it has committed $113m to prepare for bird flu, including $47m “to accelerate protective action” for threatened species and biodiversity.

The environment minister, Murray Watt, said the risk analysis had already informed investments to protect captive animal populations, removing feral threats and inoculating against more common diseases.

“We have been investing in these types of projects across the country for several years in preparation for a bird flu outbreak, and as a result, our native species are in a better position to withstand the H5 incursion.”

Jess Abrahams, national nature campaigner at the Australian Conservation Foundation, said: “Australia is already in the midst of an extinction crisis and we need to be prepared for just how harrowing this could get.

“Australians love nature and we all need to be emotionally prepared for the onslaught that could occur and know what to do if they come across a sick, dying or dead animal.”

The H5N1 virus has killed millions of birds and mammals since it spread from Europe in 2021 to every continent on the planet.

Australia was the final continent to be breached six weeks ago, when infected Antarctic and subantarctic migratory seabirds were found dead and sick in Western Australia and South Australia.

The virus has now been confirmed in more than 100 individual birds and air surveillance has recorded the first mass mortality event from the disease, in South Australia. Detections have also been confirmed in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.