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Story by Catherine Shuttleworth •1h

Scientists warn humanity has a ‘1 in 6’ change of dying out this Century© Photo by Chelms Varthoumlien on Unsplash

In 2020, philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice, a book on the risk of human extinction. The chances of “existential catastrophe” for humanity in the next century according to Ord? One in six.

It was a shocking number that alarmed many. After years of being flooded with warnings over climate change, rogue AI, nuclear weapons and pandemics, it’s hard to disagree that humans face worrying chances.

In his book, Ord discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can be examined through history. His research involved looking at the number of space rocks that have hit the moon over its history to figure out the likelihood than an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth. This was, in fact, looked at in 2022 by French scientists Jean-Marc Salotti, he calculated the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century to be roughly one in 300 million.

By contrast, Ord estimated the risk to be one in a million, although he does point out a considerable degree of uncertainty.

Probabilities can be hard to understand in this context. Traditional probability, for example, relies on observations and a collection of repeated events, but human extinction would be a one-off.

Related video: This lethal disease could be eradicated by 2040, according to science (Dailymotion)

But there is another way to think if, called Bayesianism, after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It sees probabilities as a ranking system of sorts. Specific number predictions shouldn’t be taken so literally, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand the likelihood of each outcome.

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Ord’s book contains a table of potential causes of extinctions, accompanied by his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these as relative ranks.

Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand).

However, even using Bayesianism traditionally requires the incorporation of observational evidence.

So, what do we make of Ord’s “one in six”?

Well it’s better to take it less literally but to think of it as a warning, to jump start action on issues such as climate change to hopefully reduce the risk of human extinction in the next century.

Chris Oberholtz

Sat, October 7, 2023 at 9:02 AM PDT·3 min read

https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-birds-dead-utah-suspected-160202588.html

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SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of birds in northern Utah have died due to a recent outbreak of wildlife officials believe is avian botulism.

Biologists with the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources said they discovered dead and sick birds in mid-September in the Willard Spur and Harold Crane waterfowl management areas.

Several birds were gathered and examined to determine if they were infected with a disease. The testing revealed that the birds did not have highly pathogenic avian influenza, which has had fewer cases in the state this year, according to the Utah DWR. The final test results are not yet available, but experts said they believe that avian botulism may have caused the birds’ deaths.

Avian botulism is caused by a toxin produced by Clostridium botulinum bacteria, which is made in warm water with low oxygen levels during summer and fall, according to wildlife officials. The disease is a problem in Utah, usually occurring between July and September, especially during hot and rainy weather.

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OVER 300 MILLION BIRDS START ANNUAL FALL MIGRATION TO THE SOUTH FOR THE WINTER

The stagnant pools of water that form during these conditions provide a breeding ground for the anaerobic bacteria that causes avian botulism, wildlife officials add. This can make birds sick and cause them to die.

According to state biologists, the number of birds affected by avian botulism in Utah was unusually high this year. While it is difficult to say how many birds died, officials estimate that tens of thousands were affected, especially in the Bear River Bay and Willard Spur Waterfowl Management Area.

“Our wetland managers strive to make adjustments in their water management practices on state waterfowl management areas in order to keep fresh water flowing, which can help minimize the impacts of avian botulism,” DWR Waterfowl Coordinator Jason Jones said. “Many of the waterfowl management areas were originally created to reduce the botulism outbreaks that occurred along the river deltas a century ago.”

Avian botulism primarily affects waterfowl, gulls and shorebirds in stagnant water, often resulting in the discovery of sick or dead birds near the shoreline. Signs of the disease include the inability of a bird to hold its head up and a bird flapping its wings, but not having the strength to take off, wildlife officials said.

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When encountering sick or dead birds, it is important to follow these safety precautions, the Utah DWR said. Although rare, avian botulism outbreaks can pose a risk to humans.

• Hunt waterfowl that are in flight, as this is usually a sign of good health.
• Refrain from hunting or eating birds that exhibit signs of sickness or weakness.
• Cook meat thoroughly to ensure that the toxin is denatured by the heat.
• Botulism can affect dogs if they consume the meat, so keep your dogs away from sick, dead or dying birds.

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Wildlife officials advise that if you encounter sick birds, you should refrain from handling or touching them. Attempting to catch or feed them could be detrimental as it may provide them with unsuitable food. It is also recommended that you keep a safe distance from the birds to avoid causing them additional stress.

Original article source: Thousands of birds dead in Utah after suspected avian botulism outbreak View comments

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