A bird flu outbreak from Texas has now infected Wisconsin cattle
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If Bird Flu Spills Over To Humans, This Is What Would Happen In A Very Short Period
Things could spiral out of control very quickly.
Rosie McCall
https://www.iflscience.com/if-bird-flu-spills-over-to-humans-this-is-what-would-happen-in-a-very-short-period-81998
Freelance Writer
Rosie is a freelance writer living in London. She has covered everything from ancient Egyptian temples to exciting medical breakthroughs, but she particularly enjoys writing about wildlife, anthropology and the wonders of the human mind.View full profile
EditedbyJohannes Van Zijl
- https://www.iflscience.com/if-bird-flu-spills-over-to-humans-this-is-what-would-happen-in-a-very-short-period-81998
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As we all learned in 2020, it does not take long for a disease outbreak to turn into a full-blown pandemic. Zoonotic diseases – such as COVID-19 or bird flu – are prime contenders for a future “Disease X” that could spark a global epidemic.
In a new paper, published in Springer Nature Link, researchers simulated what could happen if highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), better known as “bird flu,” were to spill over into humans. There is more than one strain floating around at the moment, but it is the H5N1 subtype that is the most well-known and that formed the basis of the research.
For the study, the researchers used an agent-based simulation to model a two-step scenario, where the disease is first transmitted from bird to human and then, by human to human. The model was based on a fictional village of 9,667 people in the district of Namakkal in Tamil Nadu, India – a region home to over 1,600 poultry farms and more than 70 million chickens.
The simulation predicted what would happen after the disease was planted at one of two outbreak sites – a poultry farm and a wet market – where primary contacts came into contact with infected birds. These synthetic “agents” would then continue to go about their day, engaging with other agents that existed within a larger network of secondary contacts (such as friends, family and colleagues) and tertiary contacts. Interventions, from culling birds to distributing vaccines to implementing quarantines, could be tested to determine their impact on disease spread.
For a pandemic to ensue, the virus has to first overcome two “bottlenecks” (events that cause the original population to reduce dramatically) – the capacity to infect human hosts and the ability to pass from human to human. Once achieved, the researchers found that infections could quickly be curtailed if cases remained isolated and households were quarantined, but things could quickly spiral out of control as soon as tertiary contacts are infected.
“It is in the very early stages of an outbreak that control measures make the most difference,” the researchers write. “Once community transmission takes over, cruder public-health measures such as lockdowns, compulsory masking, and large-scale vaccination drives are the only options left.”
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So far, cases of bird flu have been reported in various animals, including sheep, cows, cats, elephant seals and humans. As per the last count, the CDC reports there have been 71 infections – and two deaths – in the U.S. since 2024.
While there is no indication yet that the disease can jump from human to human, scientists have warned we could just be one or two mutations away from this type of scenario.
If we ever do find ourselves in the midst of a potential outbreak, the researchers say their simulations can be run in real-time “responding to initial reports of cases. They can be tuned further as more information is collected.”
The study is published in the journal Springer Nature Link.
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Montana adjusts hunting regulations to address key concerns
- Dec 22, 2025 Updated Dec 23, 2025
- https://www.montanarightnow.com/helena/montana-adjusts-hunting-regulations-to-address-key-concerns/article_31d0ca8e-01d8-4115-80cc-34adedc6a46a.html
HELENA, Mont. – On December 4, the Montana Fish and Wildlife Commission set new hunting regulations for 2026 and 2027, addressing nonresident hunting pressure and mule deer population concerns.
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Director Christy Clark emphasized the significance of these regulations and the public input that shaped them.
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“The commission’s action were a culmination of a lengthy process that started this past summer with public meetings around the state,” said Clark. “Both the commission and FWP heard a lot of input from hunters, landowners and the public. This input was critical in the final regulations that were approved.”
The changes aim to protect resources rather than focus on revenue.
“It’s true, some of these changes will reduce revenue coming to FWP from license sales, but when it comes down to it, this is about protecting the resource, not revenue,” Clark said.
Nonresident hunting pressure, particularly in eastern Montana, has been a growing concern. The commission approved an amendment to cap nonresident deer licenses, reducing them by about 2,500.
Commission Chair Lesley Robinson highlighted the need for this measure, saying, “The reason that I brought this forward was to start discussion. And something has to be done. We have a lot of overcrowding.”
Mule deer declines have prompted specific changes. In 2026 and 2027, most mule deer B licenses will be valid only on private land, and residents will see a reduction in the number of deer licenses they can hold from eight to three.
Additionally, the number of deer B licenses sold in 2024 was the lowest since 2016, reflecting the declining mule deer numbers.
Other changes include adjustments in archery regulations, bighorn sheep quotas, black bear hunting, and mountain lion season dates.
FWP extends white-tailed deer hunting season near Bozeman due to recent CWD detections
Deer hunting season extended near Bozeman due to CWD detections
Montana adjusts hunting regulations to address key concerns
State reports bird flu outbreak in geese at 2 southwest Iowa lakes
- BY CAMI Koons Iowa Capital Dispatch
- Dec 22, 2025
The Iowa Department of Natural Resources confirmed Thursday that Canada geese at two southern Iowa lakes tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza.
The outbreak was detected following reports of dead geese at Green Valley Lake, near Creston.
Rachel Ruden, the state wildlife veterinarian with the DNR, said this is the first time mass mortality events from the bird flu have impacted southwest Iowa since the start of the HPAI outbreak in 2022.
“We’ve been kind of buffered in southwest from seeing great activity,” Ruden said. “Whereas other parts of the state, central Iowa and northeast, it’s been pretty routine to get activity in the fall (and) winter.”
Since 2022, according to national data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, more than 184 million domestic poultry have died from the virus, and more than 8,500 cases of the flu have been detected in wild birds.
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According to the DNR, staff received reports of dead geese at Green Valley Lake on Dec. 11 and began collecting birds to submit for testing at Iowa State University’s Veterinary Diagnostic Lab. Results from the test revealed geese died from the H5N1 avian influenza.
Ruden said reports of dead geese circulated around the same time for Lake of Three Fires, in Bedford, where the other documented outbreak occurred.
Because the birds are wild, can sink in the water or be taken off by scavenging animals, Ruden said it’s difficult to gather an exact count of the number of dead birds during an outbreak. She said last year, wild bird deaths across the state totaled in the low thousands. So far, in southwestern Iowa where the outbreaks have been concentrated this fall, Ruden estimated bird deaths totaled a “couple hundred.”
Canada geese migration increased in late November with the cold and snowy conditions across Iowa. According to the DNR, a Dec. 12 survey of waterfowl found the Canada geese populations had increased by more than 30% from the week prior.
The DNR said it’s “uncertain” how long the outbreak will last, but staff expect waterfowl will “disperse” and therefore reduce opportunities for transmission, as rain and mild weather move in.
Ruden said it will be interesting, from a scientific perspective, to see how the scavenging population in southwest Iowa reacts to the outbreak. In the past, she said, there has been a concern about bald eagles contracting bird flu after scavenging bird carcasses but as it turns out, many of the mature bald eagles have shown they have antibodies to avian influenza.
“But, that might not hold true in the southwest, where they really haven’t seen the same level of exposure,” Ruden said.
People should avoid contact with dead or sick birds, according to the DNR and to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While the public health risk of HPAI is low, there have been more than 70 cases of the virus in people who were exposed to sick poultry or dairy cattle.
The DNR also advises Iowans keep their pets from dead or sick birds as they can also get sick from the virus.
Iowans who see 20 or more bird carcasses are encouraged to call their local wildlife staff, a directory of which can be found online.
The state has additional guidelines for Iowans who find a bird carcass on their property and want to collect and dispose of it safely.
“We encourage the public to report sick birds or other wildlife to your local wildlife biologist or conservation officer to help us track impacts of this disease,” Ruden said in the news release. “We all have a part to play in keeping Iowa’s wildlife healthy.”
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