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Scientists warn humanity has a ‘1 in 6’ change of dying out this century
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Story by Catherine Shuttleworth •1h
Scientists warn humanity has a ‘1 in 6’ change of dying out this Century© Photo by Chelms Varthoumlien on Unsplash
In 2020, philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice, a book on the risk of human extinction. The chances of “existential catastrophe” for humanity in the next century according to Ord? One in six.
It was a shocking number that alarmed many. After years of being flooded with warnings over climate change, rogue AI, nuclear weapons and pandemics, it’s hard to disagree that humans face worrying chances.
In his book, Ord discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can be examined through history. His research involved looking at the number of space rocks that have hit the moon over its history to figure out the likelihood than an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth. This was, in fact, looked at in 2022 by French scientists Jean-Marc Salotti, he calculated the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century to be roughly one in 300 million.
By contrast, Ord estimated the risk to be one in a million, although he does point out a considerable degree of uncertainty.
Probabilities can be hard to understand in this context. Traditional probability, for example, relies on observations and a collection of repeated events, but human extinction would be a one-off.
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But there is another way to think if, called Bayesianism, after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It sees probabilities as a ranking system of sorts. Specific number predictions shouldn’t be taken so literally, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand the likelihood of each outcome.
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Ord’s book contains a table of potential causes of extinctions, accompanied by his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these as relative ranks.
Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand).
However, even using Bayesianism traditionally requires the incorporation of observational evidence.
So, what do we make of Ord’s “one in six”?
Well it’s better to take it less literally but to think of it as a warning, to jump start action on issues such as climate change to hopefully reduce the risk of human extinction in the next century.
Thousands of birds dead in Utah after suspected avian botulism outbreak
Chris Oberholtz
Sat, October 7, 2023 at 9:02 AM PDT·3 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-birds-dead-utah-suspected-160202588.html
SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of birds in northern Utah have died due to a recent outbreak of wildlife officials believe is avian botulism.
Biologists with the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources said they discovered dead and sick birds in mid-September in the Willard Spur and Harold Crane waterfowl management areas.
Several birds were gathered and examined to determine if they were infected with a disease. The testing revealed that the birds did not have highly pathogenic avian influenza, which has had fewer cases in the state this year, according to the Utah DWR. The final test results are not yet available, but experts said they believe that avian botulism may have caused the birds’ deaths.
Avian botulism is caused by a toxin produced by Clostridium botulinum bacteria, which is made in warm water with low oxygen levels during summer and fall, according to wildlife officials. The disease is a problem in Utah, usually occurring between July and September, especially during hot and rainy weather.
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OVER 300 MILLION BIRDS START ANNUAL FALL MIGRATION TO THE SOUTH FOR THE WINTER
The stagnant pools of water that form during these conditions provide a breeding ground for the anaerobic bacteria that causes avian botulism, wildlife officials add. This can make birds sick and cause them to die.
According to state biologists, the number of birds affected by avian botulism in Utah was unusually high this year. While it is difficult to say how many birds died, officials estimate that tens of thousands were affected, especially in the Bear River Bay and Willard Spur Waterfowl Management Area.
“Our wetland managers strive to make adjustments in their water management practices on state waterfowl management areas in order to keep fresh water flowing, which can help minimize the impacts of avian botulism,” DWR Waterfowl Coordinator Jason Jones said. “Many of the waterfowl management areas were originally created to reduce the botulism outbreaks that occurred along the river deltas a century ago.”
Avian botulism primarily affects waterfowl, gulls and shorebirds in stagnant water, often resulting in the discovery of sick or dead birds near the shoreline. Signs of the disease include the inability of a bird to hold its head up and a bird flapping its wings, but not having the strength to take off, wildlife officials said.
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When encountering sick or dead birds, it is important to follow these safety precautions, the Utah DWR said. Although rare, avian botulism outbreaks can pose a risk to humans.
- Hunt waterfowl that are in flight, as this is usually a sign of good health.
- Refrain from hunting or eating birds that exhibit signs of sickness or weakness.
- Cook meat thoroughly to ensure that the toxin is denatured by the heat.
- Botulism can affect dogs if they consume the meat, so keep your dogs away from sick, dead or dying birds.
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Wildlife officials advise that if you encounter sick birds, you should refrain from handling or touching them. Attempting to catch or feed them could be detrimental as it may provide them with unsuitable food. It is also recommended that you keep a safe distance from the birds to avoid causing them additional stress.
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Cambodian Man Dies From Bird Flu
By AFP – Agence France Presse
https://www.barrons.com/news/cambodian-man-dies-from-bird-flu-ba7749db
October 8, 2023
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A 50-year-old man has died from bird flu in Cambodia, the health ministry said on Sunday, the second death from the virus recorded in the country this year.
The World Health Organization has called for vigilance after bird flu was detected in mammals, but has stressed that the risk to humans is low.
The ministry said that tests had confirmed the man — who has not been named, but is from eastern Svay Rieng province bordering Vietnam — was positive for bird flu virus H5N1 from October 7.
Officials did not specify the man’s time of death, but said health authorities are “investigating and researching this bird flu case”.
The disease typically spreads from birds to humans through direct contact.
Officials said they were looking into the source of the infection, and were examining any suspected cases or people who may have been in contact with the victim.
The ministry said around 50 poultry, some belonging to the man and some owned by his neighbours, had died recently.
“The dead chickens were shared among villagers to eat,” the health ministry statement said.
The ministry urged villagers to be vigilant about H5N1, which is “still a threat to the health of people, especially children”.
The case is the 58th recorded instance of bird flu since the virus hit Cambodia two decades ago. In February an eleven-year-old girl died from the virus.
Since late 2021, Europe has been gripped by its worst-ever outbreak of bird flu, with North and South America also experiencing severe outbreaks.
This has led to the culling of tens of millions of domestic poultry worldwide, many with the H5N1 strain.
The global outbreak is also responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of wild birds.
The recent detection of the disease in a number of mammals, including foxes, otters, minks, sea lions and even grizzly bears, has sparked concern that humans could be more at risk.
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The Barron’s news department was not involved in the creation of the content above. This story was produced by AFP. For more information go to AFP.com.
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