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No one wants to think about pandemics. But bird flu doesn’t care.
A pandemic response that amounts to hoping and praying isn’t nearly enough.
By Kelsey Piper May 3, 2024, 8:00am EDT
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Kelsey Piper is a senior writer at Future Perfect, Vox’s effective altruism-inspired section on the world’s biggest challenges. She explores wide-ranging topics like climate change, artificial intelligence, vaccine development, and factory farms, and also writes the Future Perfect newsletter.
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The so-called “bird flu” H5N1 virus only rarely infects humans. Over the course of several decades during which it has circulated and resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of birds, about 880 cases in humans have been reported, generally in humans who work very closely with livestock.
But when it does make the leap to human hosts, H5N1 is often lethal — out of 26 cases reported since 2022, seven people died. That’s why it’s troubling that H5N1 has been recently discovered to have quietly spread across the country’s dairy farms, with testing finding genetic material of the virus present in 1 in 5 milk samples across the country. (Pasteurization kills the virus, so milk remains safe to drink.)
That prevalence suggests that H5N1 is now spreading in mammals — and since cows on dairy farms are in frequent contact with farm workers, it seems likely the virus will have many chances to evolve to spread more easily among humans. If it does that, we may have another pandemic on our hands.
None of that is great news, but the thing that has struck me most about the bird flu outbreak is that among the general public, it’s been greeted with a weariness that borders on indifference. The dominant attitude I’ve encountered when I ask people their concerns about bird flu amounts to “Well, I hope that doesn’t happen; I don’t have it in me to go through a pandemic again.”
The Covid-19 pandemic was awful for people — not just for the millions who died and the many more who it hospitalized and lastingly affected, but also for the billions whose daily life it damaged, from lockdowns and school closures to dramatic new restrictions on movement and travel. You might expect that precisely because Covid-19 was so awful, the general public would be raring to make sure it can never happen again, by insisting our leaders do whatever it takes to be prepared for the next pandemic.
But that doesn’t seem to have happened. Instead, with trust in our public health institutions badly damaged and many people suffering from pandemic fatigue, we now lack the attention span for the kind of serious policy response that could feasibly prevent the next pandemic.
Repeated efforts to get a serious pandemic prevention program through Congress have fizzled. Despite the desperation of Americans to not go through this again — or possibly because of the desperation of Americans to not go through this again — we’ve basically decided to handle pandemic preparedness by hoping really sincerely it doesn’t happen again.
But it will. If not with this virus, another one.
Crossing our fingers isn’t a policy response
H5N1 has never, as far as we know, had sustained human-to-human transmission. It may never mutate to be capable of that — many viruses don’t.
The CDC says “the current public health risk is low,” and while that gives me flashbacks to Covid, it’s accurate at this moment; unless you spend a lot of time with cows or poultry, or drink raw milk, you’re unlikely to be exposed unless the virus evolves new capabilities. H5N1 has been dancing along the line of human spillover for more than 25 years without making the full leap. Hoping really hard that it goes away might work out fine.
But if we are truly desperate to prevent the next pandemic — if we feel very viscerally that we can’t do this again, that our normalcy and our unmasked gatherings are among the most precious things we have these days — then that’s reason to prioritize preparedness more highly, not less so.
We need an actual, serious policy response aimed at looking closely at the possible origins of pandemics, at how to reduce human-wildlife interfaces. We should be closely monitoring research with pandemic potential, and work to improve our infrastructure for spotting pandemics early, developing vaccines and countermeasures.
If we want to stop pandemics, then stop pandemics
It’s very understandable that the general public doesn’t want to have to become an expert in the different varieties of pandemic-potential virus out there. They don’t want to check the CDC website for case numbers, don’t want to see another round of school closures, don’t want to let pandemics consume their life again.
But if there’s limited public pressure to prevent the next pandemic — the issue doesn’t rank among the most important ones for the 2024 elections — policymakers will evidently just not do it. So I think we have to, somehow, process the wreckage wrought by Covid, and turn our sense that we can’t live through this again into a determination to do better so we never have to.
Pandemics aren’t like earthquakes. They happen for predictable reasons, and we know how to stop them. It would be an enormous tragedy if we fail to get that work done because Covid-19 was so painful and so exhausting that we can’t even think clearly about the possibility it might happen again.
A version of this story originally appeared in the Future Perfect newsletter. Sign up here!
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Kristi Noem’s VP chances appear as dead as the dog she killed. There are other reasons too.
Noem had long ago been all but cast aside as a likely running mate, according to six people close to Donald Trump.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem gestures to the crowd prior to remarks from Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally on March 16, 2024, in Vandalia, Ohio. | Jeff Dean/AP
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05/02/2024 06:26 PM EDT
Kristi Noem’s damage-control tour is in full swing. It appears destined for the same fate as her late dog Cricket: dead in a gravel pit somewhere near Pierre.
But at Mar-a-Lago, even before the revelation about her dog, Noem had long ago been cast aside as a likely running mate, according to six people close to former President Donald Trump who, while not discounting Noem entirely, have for many weeks said she has almost no chance of being on the ticket. The Cricket saga was just the latest in one of the most spectacularly botched vice presidential contender rollouts in modern political history.
On Wednesday, days ahead of the release of her political memoir originally designed to boost her veepstakes campaign, Noem took to Sean Hannity to try to reset the disastrous political narrative surrounding her: that penning the anecdote about shooting her dog as an example of her ability to make difficult decisions had destroyed her vice presidential ambitions.
Noem will return to Trump’s turf in Palm Beach, Florida this weekend, addressing top-dollar donors with other prospective running mates at a luxury hotel. Two advisers to Noem, granted anonymity to speak freely, said they expect a Sunday show appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” and additional excerpts from the book to also make news.
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But it almost certainly won’t be enough to turn the tide of public opinion or, more importantly for Noem, the view of her inside Mar-a-Lago.
“She is of no use,” said Scott Jennings, a former President George W. Bush political adviser, comparing Noem to other running mate contenders, including North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) who would “have utility” on the Trump ticket.
“What does she bring?” Jennings said of Noem. “The possibility of weirdo drama. That’s it. She appeals to no constituency Trump doesn’t already have.”
For several years, Noem had appeared ascendant in Republican politics. She became one of the most vocal governors against Covid regulations, was a regular on the conservative television and conference circuit, hosted Trump for a 2020 Independence Day celebration and then gave him a miniature bust of Mount Rushmore with his face included.
But then came reports in conservative media of allegations that Noem was having an extramarital affair with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Noem denied it, saying at the time that “these rumors are total garbage and a disgusting lie.” Yet despite Noem being invited to meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago as recently as February, and campaigning for him in Iowa earlier this year, inside Trump’s orbit, the rumors stuck.
Not only have Trump aides been concerned about the reports, Trump himself expressed qualms about them, too. While entertaining visitors at Mar-a-Lago earlier this year, Trump made a joke about Noem’s “baggage,” according to a person with knowledge of the remarks and granted anonymity to speak freely.
In recent weeks — and in rapid succession — everything else came to knock down the negligible chances Noem had of getting tapped as running mate.
She was widely mocked after filming a bizarre infomercial-style video advertising for a Texas cosmetic dentistry that she said had given her a new “smile,” a promotion that raised ethics questions and led to a lawsuit against her.
Noem released new television advertisements featuring herself, spending millions of state dollars to dress up as a construction worker and state trooper — after filming previous spots pretending to be a plumber, dentist, electrician and welder — in an apparent bid to draw new residents to South Dakota.
Last weekend, Noem appeared on CNN, coming under fire after refusing to say whether abortion exceptions for rape and incest should be permitted, instead replying that she doesn’t “believe a tragedy should perpetuate another tragedy.” In South Dakota, all abortions are outlawed except to save a woman’s life.
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“Are suburban women going to come and flock to Donald Trump? Probably not,” said David Urban, a former senior Trump campaign adviser. “Does Kristi Noem help that fact? Western governor, kind of a tough cowgirl, tough image. Not sure she’s the one that brings suburban women to the ballot box.”
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After the anecdote about 14-month-old Cricket came out, Noem’s advisers confessed they were taken aback that it garnered such intense backlash.
“I didn’t think that was going to be the headline,” a person close to Noem who had read the book told POLITICO. The person was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on her behalf.
But news of Noem’s execution and disposal of her dog has continued to play out for more than a week, with Noem making multiple comments defending her decision, including saying on Wednesday that the dog was “not a puppy,” but a threat to her family.
“I think Gov. Noem’s efforts have been sophomoric,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump ally. “Running ads may have seemed clever, but to someone as sophisticated as Trump, her strategies have been a bit too obvious.”
“Killing the dog and then writing about it,” Gingrich added, “ended any possibility of her being picked as VP.”
Noem is set to appear at the Trump and Republican National Committee donor retreat taking place this weekend in Palm Beach, where Trump will also give remarks, joined by more than a dozen other “special guests.”
Noem is scheduled to speak on Saturday morning in a “breakfast conversation” with Burgum that will be moderated by RNC Chair Michael Whatley, according to a copy of the agenda.
A number of other Republicans seen as Trump running mate contenders, including Rubio, Vance and Scott, are also expected to appear. The event is expected to draw around 400 major donors, according to a person familiar with the planning.
But damage already done may prove irreversible.
Conservative commentator Erick Erickson, who on his show this week railed about Noem being a “psychopath,” told POLITICO that sharing the dog anecdote showed “poor judgment on her part.”
“If she did that to impress Trump, she forgot he’s hurting himself in the suburbs where they tend not to murder dogs,” Erickson said.
But even before the Cricket fiasco, Noem “had too much baggage,” Erickson said — though he speculated that, if picked for the ticket, it would have been “shrugged off” by conservatives.
Sen. Kevin Cramer, a Republican from the nearby state of North Dakota, described the likelihood of Noem getting on the ticket like this: “It’s hard to imagine a universe where bragging about shooting your 14-month-old puppy increases your brand value.”
The MAGA movement, said Steve Bannon, a former top Trump adviser, “is looking for a perfect compliment to President Trump,” which includes “someone who can help him win and help him govern.”
“But shooting an innocent puppy,” he said, “may be a tad too ‘based’ for many.”
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World ‘on brink of hybrid World War 3’ which could lead to ‘radioactive Europe’
Story by Ewan Gleadow & Rudi Kinsella
• 1h • 2 min read
World ‘on brink of hybrid World War 3’ which will lead to ‘radioactive Europe’© (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
The world could be teetering on the edge of a “hybrid World War 3” if Russia’s terrifying invasion of Ukraine proves successful, experts have warned.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has advanced troops further into Donetsk, and if his war campaign is victorious, it could result in a radioactive Europe and full-scale conflict with NATO nations.
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Globsec, an international think tank, has cautioned that a sudden decrease in Western support and aid to Ukraine could tip the scales in favour of a Russian victory.
This would leave a real nuclear threat in Russia’s hands following their withdrawal from nuclear deterrence treaties.
The potential for nuclear threats could increase as the ripple effects of Ukraine’s defeat spread across Europe. Polish President Andrzej Duda has already declared he will launch nuclear missiles if necessary, leading to possible radioactive “contamination”.
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The report stated: “Continuing risks of nuclear contamination in Europe, caused by artificially provoked technogenic catastrophes (like on Zaporizhzhya NPP) with consequent after-effects of humanitarian and ecological catastrophe on the entire continent.”
As Russia’s influence widens into wider Europe, experts are fearing a possible full-scale conflict with NATO, one that could potentially involve “nuclear components”. The stage of conflict might also extend worldwide, with Russia and North Korea strengthening ties.
The group raised the alarm stating, “Russia might feel ready at some point to attack other states like Georgia, Kazakhstan and Moldova,” and feared escalation of a “conventional war of NATO countries with Russia”.
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Predictions for a peace agreement being orchestrated by Ukraines President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the coming year seem unlikely according to Globesco group. They cite upcoming elections in various nations as barriers to Zelenskyy’s establishment of his Peace Formulae.
Experts noted: “Peace talks with Russia will have no real perspective and will not be supported by almost the entire population of Ukraine.”
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